首页 > Windows开发 > 详细

[Machine Learning for Trading] {ud501} Lesson 13: 02-03 What is a company worth? | Lesson 14: 02-04 The Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM)

时间:2019-06-05 09:04:52      阅读:135      评论:0      收藏:0      [点我收藏+]

What is a company worth?

技术分享图片

Yes, the value of $1 would typically reduce over time, and the sum of the individual $1‘s generated every year would converge to a finite value.

but other three answers can be correct in different point of view

 

 

 

 Why company value matters

 技术分享图片

intrinsic value => dividend accumulated in the future

book value => assets the company owns

 market cap =>  the value of the stock on the market

 

 

 

 The Balch Bond

 技术分享图片

When comparing these different options, assume that they cost you the same today. Say, you have 80 cents to invest, and these are the 3 options you can get for that money.

Note: Rank 1 = most preferred option, 3 = least preferred.

 

Bond: 债券

 

 

 The value of a future dollar

 技术分享图片

US government promises 1% interest rate => today it‘s worthwhile to pay 0.99$ to US government for the promise that they‘ll return 1$ in a year

Balch Bond attracts buyers by a higher interest rate 5% <= the same as => charges less

 

 

 

Intrinsic value 

技术分享图片

interest rate => how risky the company is

 

 

Interest Rate and Discount Rate are terms that refer to essentially the same quantity, but are used to distinguish two slightly different use cases:

  • Interest Rate is used with a given Present Value, to figure out what the Future Value would be.
  • Discount Rate is used when we have a known or desired Future Value, and want to compute the corresponding Present Value.

For instance, in this case we want to sum up all future dividends - equal to a constant ($1 or FV) every year.

 

 n = 1+IR

 

DR => the same concept in reinforcement learning???

 

 

 

 

 

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

Book value 

 技术分享图片

ignore patents‘ value

 

 

 

 Market capitalization

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 Why information affects stock price

 技术分享图片

技术分享图片

future dividend decreases or increases

 

 

 

Compute company value 

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 

技术分享图片

Yes, you should buy it right away!

Ignoring the intrinsic value, if you buy the entire company off the market (for $75M) and immediately sell it for its book value ($80M), you have a $5M profit right there!

Even if you are buying some stocks (instead of the whole company), the stock price is expected to increase (as it is currently undervalued).

 

 

 

 

 技术分享图片

IV >> Market cap => buy stock

IV << Market cap => short the stock

BV => lowest price => stock value should not be lower than the book value, otherwise, why not buy the company and sell every facilities?

 

 

 

 





 

 

Two questions:

 

How a company determines its Interest Rate?

Why intrinsic value doesnt count the patent value?

 






 

 

 

The Capital Asset Pricing Model 

 1960s developed => 1990s nobel prize

CAPM => led to the development of index funds and the belief that you can‘t beat the market 

 

 

 

 

 Definition of a portfolio

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 Portfolio return

技术分享图片

0.75 1% + (-0.25) (-2%)
0.75% + 0.5%
= 1.25%

 

 

 

 The market portfolio

技术分享图片

 

 

 

The CAPM equation 

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 Compare alpha and beta

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 CAPM vs active management

 技术分享图片

 

 

 CAPM for portfolios

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

技术分享图片

That‘s right - you want a higher β in upward markets so that you can ride the surge, but a lower β in downward markets so you don‘t crash as much.

 

 

 

 Implications of CAPM

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 Arbitrage Pricing Theory

 技术分享图片

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Machine Learning for Trading] {ud501} Lesson 13: 02-03 What is a company worth? | Lesson 14: 02-04 The Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM)

原文:https://www.cnblogs.com/ecoflex/p/10977380.html

(0)
(0)
   
举报
评论 一句话评论(0
关于我们 - 联系我们 - 留言反馈 - 联系我们:wmxa8@hotmail.com
© 2014 bubuko.com 版权所有
打开技术之扣,分享程序人生!